Professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction, this unique book argues that a combination of economic interdependence and advances in both cyber and space technologies will greatly complicate deterrent strategies against a rising China, posing numerous dilemmas and opportunities.
The environment the U.S. will face in 2035 raises interesting questions. How do we, the U.S., deter a rising China from unduly influencing our freedom of action in the future? What exactly will the landscape look like at that time? Are there any lessons we can learn from Cold War deterrence principles that can help the strategist in the future? Are nuclear weapons both necessary and sufficient to deter a rising China?
Introduction * Deterrence: A Brief Review * China in 2035: Social, Political, Economic, and Military Landscape * Considerations for Developing a Deterrent Strategy for China in 2035 * Deterring China in 2035 * Conclusion * Bibliography * Footnotes
The paper begins with a review of the basics of deterrence theory. This is done in order to draw out the principles relevant to deterring China in the future, and to provide an overview for readers not well versed in deterrence theory. In this chapter, the difference between compellence and deterrence is explained using a scenario with which all are familiar; how to keep a teenager from breaking curfew. General, immediate, extended, narrow, denial, and cross-domain deterrence concepts are also briefly discussed in order to provide some clarity to a subject that is often misunderstood. Finally, this chapter touches on the principles and underlying assumptions of effective deterrence, paying particular attention to the principle of rationality and its role in determining how an adversary might react to deterrent threats since not all states or national leaders think or make decisions using the same construct that the U.S. does.
Next, the paper examines the cultural, political, economic, and military changes occurring in China and examines their future impact using an alternative futures study completed by the Air Force's Center for Strategy and Technology. These trends suggest that China is expected to grow in both economic and military power. By 2035, China will have the ability to exert her influence in the Asian region and beyond. This will occur simultaneously with increased pressures on the world's limited food and energy resources, potentially creating a source of friction between the U.S. and China.
Chapter four informs strategists on factors they must consider in developing a deterrent strategy for China in 2035. The chapter begins by pointing out the friction points that may exist between the U.S. and China in the future. Specifically, it argues that while U.S./China relations are currently stable largely due to the economic interdependence between the two nations, this may change as demand increases for ever dwindling food and energy resources. Next, this chapter highlights the main differences between the Cold War deterrent environment with current and future deterrent environments.